rki-impfparser/plot.py

#!/usr/bin/python
# vim: set fileencoding=utf-8 :

import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import pandas as pd

import datetime
import re
import requests as req
import locale
import os.path
import shutil

locale.setlocale(locale.LC_ALL, 'de_DE.UTF-8')

site_folder = 'site/'
data_folder = 'data/'

einwohner_deutschland = 83190556
herd_immunity = 0.7

today = datetime.date.today()
print_today = today.isoformat()

filename_now = datetime.datetime.now().strftime("%Y%m%d%H%M%S")

# DIN A4 Plots
plt.rcParams["figure.figsize"] = [11.69, 8.27]


# Download

data_filename = '{}/{}_Impfquotenmonitoring.xlsx'.format(data_folder, filename_now)

r = req.get('https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Daten/Impfquotenmonitoring.xlsx?__blob=publicationFile')

with open(data_filename, 'wb') as outfile:
	outfile.write(r.content)





rki_file = pd.read_excel(data_filename, sheet_name=None, engine='openpyxl')

raw_data = rki_file['Impfungen_proTag']

impfungen = raw_data[:-1].dropna()

dates = impfungen['Datum']
daily = impfungen['Gesamtzahl Impfungen']
cumulative = np.cumsum(impfungen['Gesamtzahl Impfungen'])

total_vaccinations = int(np.sum(daily))
total_vaccinations_percentage = float(total_vaccinations) / einwohner_deutschland

mean_vaccinations_daily = np.mean(daily)
mean_vaccinations_daily_int = int(np.round(mean_vaccinations_daily))

to_be_vaccinated = einwohner_deutschland - total_vaccinations
days_extrapolated = int(np.ceil(to_be_vaccinated / mean_vaccinations_daily))

extrapolated_dates = np.array([dates[0] + datetime.timedelta(days=i) for i in range(days_extrapolated)])

mean_vaccinations_daily_done = extrapolated_dates[-1]
mean_vaccinations_daily_herd_immunity = extrapolated_dates[int(np.ceil(days_extrapolated * herd_immunity))]

days_extrapolated_with_todays_rate = int(np.ceil(to_be_vaccinated / daily.iloc[-1]))

last_date = dates.iloc[-1]

last_date_day_rate = daily.iloc[-1]
last_date_day_rate_done = dates[0] + datetime.timedelta(days=days_extrapolated_with_todays_rate)
last_date_day_rate_herd_immunity = dates[0] + datetime.timedelta(days=int(np.ceil(days_extrapolated_with_todays_rate * herd_immunity)))


extrapolated_vaccinations = mean_vaccinations_daily * range(1, days_extrapolated + 1)

days_since_start = (dates.iloc[-1].date() - dates[0].date()).days
print(days_since_start)

mean_vaccinations_last_seven_days = np.mean(daily[-7:])
mean_vaccinations_last_seven_days_int = int(np.round(mean_vaccinations_last_seven_days))

days_extrapolated_last_seven_days = int(np.ceil(to_be_vaccinated / mean_vaccinations_last_seven_days))

extrapolated_vaccinations_last_seven_days = total_vaccinations + mean_vaccinations_last_seven_days * range(-days_since_start, days_extrapolated - days_since_start)

mean_vaccinations_last_seven_days_done = dates.iloc[-1] + datetime.timedelta(days=days_extrapolated_last_seven_days)
mean_vaccinations_last_seven_days_herd_immunity = dates.iloc[-1] + datetime.timedelta(days=int(np.ceil(days_extrapolated_last_seven_days * herd_immunity)))



mean_vaccinations_daily_up_to_date  = np.round(cumulative / range(1, len(cumulative) + 1))

print(extrapolated_vaccinations[:20])
print(extrapolated_vaccinations_last_seven_days[:20])
print(cumulative)

# Stand aus Daten auslesen
#stand = dates.iloc[-1]
#print_stand = stand.isoformat()

# Stand aus offiziellen Angaben auslesen
stand = rki_file['Erläuterung'].iloc[1][0]

stand_regex = re.compile('^Datenstand: (\d\d.\d\d.\d\d\d\d, \d\d:\d\d) Uhr$')
m = stand_regex.match(stand)
stand_date = datetime.datetime.strptime(m.groups()[0], '%d.%m.%Y, %H:%M')
print_stand = stand_date.isoformat()

filename_stand = stand_date.strftime("%Y%m%d%H%M%S")


archive_folder = site_folder + 'archive/' + filename_stand

if os.path.isdir(archive_folder):
	print('Archive folder {} already exists'.format(archive_folder))
else:
	os.mkdir(archive_folder)

def plot_extrapolation_portion(percentage):

	print_percentage = int(percentage * 100)
	archive_plot_filename = '{}/extrapolated_to_{}_percent'.format(archive_folder, print_percentage)
	latest_plot_filename = '{}/extrapolated_to_{}_percent'.format(site_folder, print_percentage)

	if os.path.isfile(archive_plot_filename + '.pdf'):
		print('Plot {} already exists'.format(archive_plot_filename))
		return

	fig, ax = plt.subplots(1)


	plt.title(
		'Tägliche Impfquote, kumulierte Impfungen und lineare Extrapolation bis {:n} % der Bevölkerung Deutschlands\n'
		'Erstellung: {}, Datenquelle: RKI, Stand: {}\n'
		'Impfungen gesamt: {:n} ({:n} %), Durchschnittliche Impfrate: {:n} Impfungen/Tag'.format(
			print_percentage,
			print_today, print_stand,
			total_vaccinations, np.round(total_vaccinations_percentage * 100, 2), mean_vaccinations_daily_int
		)
	)

	ax2 = ax.twinx()

	ax.bar(dates, daily, label='Tägliche Impfungen', color='blue')
	ax.plot(dates, mean_vaccinations_daily_up_to_date, color='violet', label='Durchschnittliche Impfquote\nbis zu diesem Tag (inkl.)')

	ax2.set_ylim([0, einwohner_deutschland * percentage])
	ax2.set_xlim(xmax=dates[0] + datetime.timedelta(days=percentage * days_extrapolated))
	ax2.grid(True)
	ax2.plot(dates, cumulative, color='red', label='Kumulierte Impfungen')
	ax2.plot(extrapolated_dates, extrapolated_vaccinations, color='orange', label='Extrap. kumulierte Impfungen (Ø gesamt)\n{:n} Impfungen/Tag'.format(mean_vaccinations_daily_int))
	ax2.plot(extrapolated_dates, extrapolated_vaccinations_last_seven_days, color='goldenrod', label='Extrap. kumulierte Impfungen (Ø 7 Tage)\n{:n} Impfungen/Tag'.format(mean_vaccinations_last_seven_days_int))
	#ax2.plot()

	ax.legend(loc='upper left')
	ax.get_yaxis().get_major_formatter().set_scientific(False)

	ax.set_xlabel('Datum')
	ax.set_ylabel('Tägliche Impfungen')

	ax2.legend(loc='center right')
	ax2.get_yaxis().get_major_formatter().set_scientific(False)

	# Estimated percentage for herd immunity
	#ax2.axline((0, einwohner_deutschland * 0.7), slope=0, color='green')

	ax2.set_ylabel('Kumulierte Impfungen')

	plt.savefig(archive_plot_filename + '.pdf')
	plt.savefig(archive_plot_filename + '.png')
	plt.savefig(latest_plot_filename + '.pdf')
	plt.savefig(latest_plot_filename + '.png')
	plt.close()

	print('Created plot {} as pdf and png'.format(archive_plot_filename))


plot_extrapolation_portion(0.1)
plot_extrapolation_portion(0.7)
plot_extrapolation_portion(1.0)


def render_dashboard():
	dashboard_filename = 'site/index.xhtml'
	dashboard_archive_filename = 'site/archive/{}/index.xhtml'.format(filename_stand)
	stylesheet_filename = 'site/rki-dashboard.css'
	stylesheet_archive_filename = 'site/archive/{}/rki-dashboard.css'.format(filename_stand)

	if os.path.isfile(dashboard_archive_filename):
		print('Dashboard {} already exists'.format(dashboard_archive_filename))
		return

	from jinja2 import Template, Environment, FileSystemLoader, select_autoescape
	env = Environment(
		loader=FileSystemLoader('./'),
		autoescape=select_autoescape(['html', 'xml', 'xhtml'])
	)

	german_text_date_format = '%d. %B %Y'
	df = german_text_date_format

	german_text_datetime_format = '%d. %B %Y, %H:%M:%S Uhr'
	dtf = german_text_datetime_format

	latest_dashboard_filename = site_folder + 'index.xhtml'
	archive_dashboard_filename = archive_folder

	template = env.get_template('dashboard_template.xhtml')
	template.stream(
		stand = stand_date.strftime(dtf),
		filename_stand = filename_stand,
		einwohner_deutschland = '{:n}'.format(einwohner_deutschland).replace('.', ' '),
		herd_immunity = '{:n}'.format(int(herd_immunity * 100)),
		total_vaccinations = '{:n}'.format(total_vaccinations).replace('.', ' '),
		total_vaccinations_percentage = '{:.3n}'.format(total_vaccinations_percentage * 100),
		days_since_start = days_since_start,
		last_date = last_date.strftime(df),
		last_date_day_rate = '{:n}'.format(last_date_day_rate).replace('.', ' '),
		mean_vaccinations_daily = '{:n}'.format(mean_vaccinations_daily_int).replace('.', ' '),
		mean_vaccinations_daily_herd_immunity = mean_vaccinations_daily_herd_immunity.strftime(df),
		mean_vaccinations_daily_done = mean_vaccinations_daily_done.strftime(df),
		last_date_day_rate_herd_immunity = last_date_day_rate_herd_immunity.strftime(df),
		last_date_day_rate_done = last_date_day_rate_done.strftime(df),
		mean_vaccinations_last_seven_days = '{:n}'.format(mean_vaccinations_last_seven_days_int).replace('.', ' '),
		mean_vaccinations_last_seven_days_herd_immunity = mean_vaccinations_last_seven_days_herd_immunity.strftime(df),
		mean_vaccinations_last_seven_days_done = mean_vaccinations_last_seven_days_done.strftime(df)
	).dump('site/index.xhtml')

	shutil.copyfile(dashboard_filename, dashboard_archive_filename)
	shutil.copyfile(stylesheet_filename, stylesheet_archive_filename)

	print('Created dashboard')

render_dashboard()